So the oil industry is about to end?


The first pandemic of this century is the COVID -19 pandemic. Among other things, this precipitated a price war that brought oil prices down in 2020. The news is that they are on the rise again. As the new prices of the oil super cycle – a prolonged period in which prices exceed their long-term trend – could be where we are heading.

The experts’ view on this is that it is driven by general supply shortages due to the lack of investment caused by the collapse in oil prices in 2014 and the recent reduction in investment in oil production. of shale. Additionally, demand growth has been sparked by a strong recovery in countries like China, a major stimulus package in the United States, and global optimism about vaccines.

Nonetheless, there are those who are of the opinion that this could be the last super cycle for oil. This is based on the fact that major economies appear to be committed to replacing fossil fuels, an issue that has prompted some automakers to respond by committing to replace internal combustion engine vehicles with electric ones.

However, little has been said about earth moving machinery in this regard. If this happens, this change will transform the oil market into a market that meets climate goals. As good as it sounds, it also presents a risk of disorderly adjustment for oil-dependent economies, with far-reaching effects that in some cases could spill over their borders. One of those economies is Nigeria!

So what I just said is the political correctness point of view. However, that leaves a few salient issues that require answers. For starters, there are over ten thousand products made from crude oil. These include, but are not limited to:

Bearing Grease, Ink, Floor Wax, Ballpoint Pens, Soccer Cleats, Padded Jerseys, Boats, Insecticides, Bicycle Tires, Sports Car Bodies, Nail Polish, Fishing Lures, Dresses, Tires, Golf Bags , Perfumes, Cassettes, Dishwasher parts, Tool boxes, Shoe polish, Motorcycle helmet, Petroleum jelly, Transparent tape, CD player, Tap washers, Antiseptics, Clothesline, Curtains, Food preservative, Balloons basketball, Soaps, Vitamin capsules, Antihistamines, Handbags, Shoes, Dashboards, Cortisone, Deodorant, Lace tabs, Putty, dyes, tights, coolant, percolators, life jackets, TV cabinets, shag rugs , electrician’s tape, tool holder, car battery cases, epoxy paint, mops, bug spray, oil filters, umbrellas, fertilizer, hair coloring, roofing, toilet seats, fishing rods and the one and only red lips !

Other petroleum products include dentures, adhesives, linoleum, ice cube trays, synthetic rubber, speakers, plastic lumber, electric blankets, glycerin, tennis rackets, cement. rubber, fishing boots, dice, nylon rope, candles, garbage bags, house paint, water lines, hand lotion, roller skates, surfboards, shampoo, wheels, Paint Rollers, Shower Curtains, Guitar Strings, Luggage, Aspirin, Safety Glasses, Antifreeze, Football Helmets, Awnings, Glasses, Toothbrushes, Coolers, Footballs, Combs, Brushes, Detergents, Sprayers, Balloons, Sunglasses, Tents, Heart Valves, Pencils, Parachutes, Phones, Enamel, Pillows, Tableware, Cameras, Anesthetics, Artificial Grass, Artificial Limbs, Bandages, Car Models, Folding Doors, Curlers and many more!

The latest news is that until a commercially competitive replacement for each of these items listed above, the end of oil is unlikely to happen. The emphasis is on commercial competitiveness.

There is also the problem that the motors of electric cars and the power that is produced to date cannot power the earthmoving machinery. This may explain why you don’t hear about companies like Caterpillar or those involved in manufacturing defense vehicles talking about going electric. We must therefore also find an alternative to that.

Electric vehicles run on batteries. It should be understood that commercially available batteries use a variety of metals and electrolytes. The anodes can be zinc, aluminum, lithium, cadmium, iron, metallic lead or lanthanide. The pollution effects of these sites are greater than those of petroleum or coal by at least a factor of 10! You don’t have to take my word for it, just scent a Google search for a lithium, cadmium, or cobalt mining site. There is absolutely no life that can exist in these places. We also end up with the small problem that the ore of these minerals only produces about 2.5% of the metal. So to have about 2.5 kg of Lithium, you will need a ton of ore.

It becomes relevant when we project a world of primarily electronic vehicles. These battery uses will always be in competition with the traditional battery uses of your cell phones and others. The point is, they may have to drill most of the earth down to the core where these elements are. Chances are these items can also be found on the moon, hence the new interest in lunar activities, but there is a caveat.

This could disrupt the natural geography of the ambiance and cause its own earthquake equivalent. If the moon is to be destabilized, there will be great tsunamis all over the world because it is the mood that is responsible for regulating ocean tides. I’m sure you get the picture.

So what’s your point of view? I’m glad you asked! There is politics involved in all of these issues of global crude oil and energy sustainability. And when it comes to politics, the truth doesn’t necessarily win out, does it?

The English word political is derived from the Greek word politiká. It has its roots in the name of Aristotle’s classical work sometimes in the mid-1500s.

It has been translated as “the affairs of the cities”. Simply put, politics can be defined as the set of activities associated with group decision-making or other forms of power relations between individuals, such as the allocation of resources or status. However, a more simplified definition is obtained from Harold Lasswell, who once said that politics is “who gets what, when, how”.

So when the problems concern a city, or the world or the business world or an industry in business, the issues of who gets what, when and how will have to involve politics. The petroleum industry is no exception.

As we have seen, the challenges of ending crude oil are energy transition policies. You don’t have to take it to heart. Let the politicians and technocrats do their job. You won’t suddenly become an industry expert by listening to a few reports on the matter on CNN.

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